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World Supply and Demand Estimates Released
Published Monday, May 12, 2008 at 04:48 AM
USDA has released its World Agricultural supply and demand estimates. The report estimates global wheat production for 2008/09 at a record 656 million tons, up 8 percent from 2007/08. The U.S. wheat outlook is for total production of 2.4 million bushels, up 16 percent from last year. The national average farm price is projected at $6.60 to $8.10 per bushel.

Global coarse grains production is projected at 1.1 billion tons, up slightly from the current year. World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to fall 6 percent. The 2008/09 U.S. corn crop is projected at 12.1 billion bushels, down 7 percent from the record 2007/08 crop. At 763 million bushels, ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96. The season-average price is projected at $5.00 to $6.00 per bushel.

Global 2008/09 rice production is projected at a record 432 million tons, up 5 million from 2007/08. World disappearance is projected at a record 428 million tons, up 3.6 million tons. U.S. rice production in 2008/09 is projected at 197 million cwt, nearly the same as 2007/08. Ending stocks in 2008/09 are projected at 17.1 million cwt, 45 percent below 2007/08. The season-average range for 2008/09 is projected at a record $18.50 to $19.50 per cwt.

Global oilseed production for 2008/09 is projected at 423 million tons, up 32.2 million tons from 2007/08. Total foreign supplies are projected to increase by 4 percent. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 56.7 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production for 2008/09 is projected at 93.0 million tons, up 16 percent from 2007/08. Domestic consumption of soybean oil is projected to increase only slightly. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2008/09 is projected at $10.50 to $12.00 per bushel.

Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2008/09 of 12.1 million short tons, raw value, is down 321-thousand tons from 2007/08, mainly due to lower production and beginning stocks. Imports under the sugar tariff rate quota are put at 1.27 million short tons to reflect the minimum of U.S. commitments to import raw and refined sugar.

The forecast for U.S. cotton during 2008/09 is for both production and ending stocks to be lower. Production is projected at 14.5 million bales, down 25 percent from 2007/08. Domestic mill use also is reduced 300-thousand bales to 4.3 million, Exports are raised slightly. World production is forecast at 118 million bales, two percent below the current season.


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